2006 is a mid-term election year, which means there will be plenty of politics come November.

Significant offices up for election.

GOVERNOR:
Rick Perry (R)*
Chris Bell (D)
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent)
Richard "Kinky" Friedman (Independent)
James Werner (Libertarian)
Larry Camp (Independent)
William Gilbert Jean (Independent)
Marcus Matthew Cherry (Independent)

The race for Governor is a toss-up at this point. Perry and Strayhorn are sinking in recent polls, while Bell and Friedman are rising. The four-way race will be interesting and full of mudslinging.

Will "Independents" Strayhorn and Friedman convince enough voters to vote for them? Will both candidates draw enough voters to attack a vulnerable Perry and allow the Democrat to carry the office? The attack ads will be in full force soon enough. The Perry record is less than stellar. The third special session of the 79th legislature produced a school funding (property tax reduction/business tax hike) plan which Perry had promised since 2003. Will that be enough?

Strayhorn, currently the Comptroller contends that actual tax relief is well below what Perry is stating, which is not surprising, being that Strayhorn has been a consistent critic of Perry in the past. You can bet on Perry ads hammering the property tax reduction numbers home, using the Governor's alledged inflated numbers.

Strayhorn and Friedman are both Republicans in Independent clothing, both filed independent before the 2006 primaries, but both have historically aligned themselves with conservative issues. While Friedman has never held public office the singer/folk icon is expected to draw double digits at least. Recent polls have Friedman tracking upward, with Strayhorn in a nosedive. Of course publicly all candidates internal tracking shows each in good shape, an indication that a campaign knows it is in trouble is attack ads, the sooner they start bashing opponents, the more desperate the campaign is, so we should be see some Perry bashing from Strayhorn soon. It will be interesting to see if all candidates focus on the incumbent, or if they attack each other.

Perry has recently taken to bashing Strayhorn for using her public office to campaign. While this fact cannot be disputed, take a look at what Perry is using his public office for.

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/divisions/press/pressreleases/PressRelease.2006-03-24.1543

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/education

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/ecodev

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/health_safety

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/transportation

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/tax_reform

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/priorities/other

Looks as if Perry is the pot calling the kettle black, being as taxpayer dollars are being used to support the Governor's website and the Governor is using the site as his proxy campaign site. While his campaign site goes even further than his official site in the propaganda department.


Some recent polls:

Perry: 38.3% (+0.6 since June/no change since January)Bell: 20.8% (+1.1/+2.9)Kinky: 20.7% (+3.2/+6.3)Strayhorn: 11% (-3.1/-9.5)
WSJ/Zogby July 2006-08-15

Perry: 35% (-5 since July/-3% since June/-5% since April/-5% since February)Bell: 18% (+5%/+4%/+1%/+5%)Kinky: 18% (-1%/-2%/+3%/+9%)Strayhorn: 18% (-2%/-1%/-1%/-13%)
Rasmussen July 2006


United States House of Representatives

District 3:
Sam Johnson (R)*
Dan Dodd (D)
Chris Claytor (Libertarian)
Bob Hise (Independent)
Paul Jenkins (Independent)

Solid Republican.
While this seat may seem safe for the GOP, the Democrat is a Vietnam Veteran and retired USAF, running veterans seems to be a national trend for the Democrats. Will the backlash seen against Lieberman in Conneticut take in Texas?

District 6:
Joe Barton (R)*
David Harris (D)
Carl Nulsen (Libertarian)

Solid Republican.
Again, it would seem to be a safe seat, but the Democrat is an Iraq War Veteran and a reserve officer.

District 10:
Mike McCaul (R)*
Ted Ankrum (D)
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian)

Solid Republican.
GOP incumbent McCaul faces Democrat Vietnam Veteran and ex-EPA official in the GOP friendly district.

District 15:
Open race, new boundaries.
Ruben Hinojosa (D)*
Paul Haring (R)
Alex Bischoff (Libertarian)

Solid Democrat.
This time a Democratic incumbent faces a challenge. Haring ran for this seat in 2004, is an ex-State Representative and Pro-Life activist, will his record help or hurt in this left leaning district.

District 17:
Chet Edwards (D)*
Van Taylor (R)
Guillermo Acosta (Libertarian)

Leans Democrat.
Tom Delay targeted Edwards with his redistricting scheme, but Edwards survived, this time it’s the GOP calling on an Iraq War Veteran, unless Taylor can raise a significant amount of money, Edwards appears safe.

District 21:
Open race, new boundaries.
Lamar Smith (R)*
John Courage (D)
James Arthur Strohm (Libertarian)
Mark Rossano (Independent)

Solid Republican.
Lamar Smith hasn't really accomplished much as a junior Representative in this GOP leaning district, will USAF veteran and 2002 candidate John Courage be able to unseat him, the make-up of the district says no.

District 22:
VACANT - Tom DeLay (R)* - Resigned June 8, 2006.
Nick Lampson (D)
Bob Smither (Libertarian)
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R/Write-In)
David Wallace (R/Write-In)

Toss-up.
The GOP lost the court battle, so Lampson should win this seat against two write-ins.

District 23:
Open race, new boundaries.
Henry Bonilla (R)*
Rick Bolanos (D)
Richard Gambitta (D)
Richard Perez (D)
Ciro Rodriguez (D)
Albert Uresti (D)
Cecil Lamb (Libertarian)

Leans Republican.
Bonilla should be able to survive, unless the Democrats can find a consensus or force a run-off. Ex-congressman and ex-state representative Ciro Rodriquez appears to be the Democratic frontrunner hoping to capitalize on the Democratic base that was shifted into Bonilla's district by the federal three-judge panel ruling.

District 25:
Open race, new boundaries.
Lloyd Doggett (D)*
Grant Rostig (R)

Solid Democratic.
Doggett was a major target of the Delay redistricting plan, he ran in the newly created District 25 running from Austin to the border and survived, although the Hispanic base was reduced from 69% to 34%, the Anglo base was reduced as well, which should translate into a win for Doggett.

District 28:
Open race, new boundaries.
Henry Cuellar (D)*
Noe Gonzalez (D)
Linda Yanez (D)
Glenda Moyes (Libertarian)

Solid Democratic.
Cuellar looks safe, he carried the district last election with 59%.

United States Senate

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)*
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D)
Scott Jameson (Libertarian)
Robert Belt (Independent)
Arthur Loux (Independent)
Lorenzo Morales (Independent)
Timothy Wade (Independent)

Radnofsky is the only challenge to Hutchison, but just barely.